How does Inflation Affect Long-Term Planning?

Inflation can make long-term planning difficult. In discussing unintended redistributions, we considered the case of someone trying to plan for retirement with a pension that is fixed in nominal terms and a high rate of inflation. Similar problems arise for all people trying to save for retirement, because they must consider what their money will really buy several decades in the future when we cannot know the rate of future inflation.

Inflation, especially at moderate or high levels, will pose substantial planning problems for businesses, too. A firm can make money from inflation—for example, by paying bills and wages as late as possible so that it can pay in inflated dollars, while collecting revenues as soon as possible. A firm can also suffer losses from inflation, as in the case of a retail business that gets stuck holding too much cash, only to see inflation eroding the value of that cash. However, when a business spends its time focusing on how to profit by inflation, or at least how to avoid suffering from it, an inevitable tradeoff strikes: less time is spent on improving products and services or on figuring out how to make existing products and services more cheaply. An economy with high inflation rewards businesses that have found clever ways of profiting from inflation, which are not necessarily the businesses that excel at productivity, innovation, or quality of service.

In the short term, low or moderate levels of inflation may not pose an overwhelming difficulty for business planning, because costs of doing business and sales revenues may rise at similar rates. If, however, inflation varies substantially over the short or medium term, then it may make sense for businesses to stick to shorter-term strategies. The evidence as to whether relatively low rates of inflation reduce productivity is controversial among economists. There is some evidence that if inflation can be held to moderate levels of less than 3% per year, it need not prevent a nation’s real economy from growing at a healthy pace. 

Related Topics

• Inflation
• Core Inflation
• Cost Push Inflation
• Demand Pull Inflation
• Wage Push Inflation
• Inflation Spiral (Wage-Price Spiral)
• Agflation
• Basket of Goods and Services
• Indexing and Index Number
• Base Year
• Consumer Price Index
• Substitution Bias
• Quality / New Goods Bias
• Core Inflation Index
• Producer Price Index
• International Price Index
• Employment Cost Index
• Buying Power Index
• Breakfast Index
• Employment Cost Index
• Producer Price Index
• Capital Goods Price Index
• Farm (Agricultural) Price Index
• Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices
• Repeated Sales Method (Real Estate)
• GDP Deflator
• Deflation
• Pigou Effect
• Hyperinflation (Economics)
• Biflation
• Inflation and Redistribution of Purchasing Power
• Inflation Blurs Price Signals
• Inflation Affects Long-Term Planning
• What are the Benefits of Inflation?
• Indexing and Index Number
• Cost of Living Allowance
• Adjustable Rate Mortgage